Pascagoula, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS64 KLIX 271206 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
706 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Looks like yesterday was the last day of rain for a few days. The
heat is on today and tomorrow and likely Tuesday as well before
rain returns Tuesday afternoon/evening. It has been a warm and
muggy night and lows likely only drop another degree or two before
sunrise with much of the area only in the mid to upper 70s this
morning.

The controlling force is a stout ridge over the southeastern CONUS
which will be retrograding today through much of the next week
towards the four corners. As the ridge becomes more centered over
the AL/GA border today the deep tropical moisture will slide west as
well with PWs dropping from over 2" last night to below 1.75" today.
Combine that with much warmer mid lvl temps (h5 around -4 to -5C)
and convection will have an extremely difficult time developing
today. With little to no convection this sets the stage for a rather
warm day but how warm or oppressive is a little more of a question
mark. LL temps will be warming with h925 and h85 temps around 26/27
and 19/20C respectively. This yields mid 90s across the entire area.
That is a pretty sufficient start to get some oppressive conditions
to develop. The problem once again and has been for much of the
month is mixing the dewpoints down. Once again the NBM appears to be
too weak with the mixing. Raw models are much lower with the
dewpoints but the MOS values are not as low and are closer to the
NBM but still slightly drier. As has been the case the hottest and
most oppressive areas will be along the coast of coastal MS, the
marsh areas of SELA around and between the 10/12 corridors and along
the river drainage areas. A Heat Adv has already been issued for
today and with those aforementioned areas leading to scattered
areas of heat index readings in the upper 100s see no reason to take
that down but other areas, especially the interior portions of the
FL parishes and southwest MS may struggle to get heat index
values above 105 today.

Heading into Monday this could be a rather hot day. There is a lot
setting up that would suggest it could be one of the hottest days of
the year so far but the previous days this Summer that were setting
up to be extremely hot did not pan out so we will have to see. That
said our ridge as it continues its westward trek will be sitting
right over the Lower MS Valley Monday. Mid lvl hghts could be around
598dm while h5 temps will likely be warmer than -5C and PWs will
still be around 1.75" or lower. This all suggest the area remaining
rain free. LL temps will also be warmer with the h925 temps around
28/29 and h85 around 21/22C. This suggest highs not having any
problem getting into the mid to upper 90s. In addition at the sfc
high pressure will be centered over the northwestern Gulf coast
providing light northerly winds. These northerly BL winds could
provide some localized downsloping/compressional heating which may
lead to a few locations finally touching the century mark. PQL
usually seems to be best candidate given it could remain just north
of any seabreeze. This also suggest another day of heat headlines
likely with Extreme Heat possible in the more humid regions once
again...along the MS coast, and especially right around the tidal
lakes. Elsewhere a heat advisory is probably sufficient as models
continue to indicate fairly good mixing and thus the very oppressive
conditions not quite panning out. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The extended portion is like rinse and repeat taking
on a similar set up as the last two weeks. We start off on the hot
side and then transition to a period of numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Medium range guidance is in rather decent agreement
with the evolution of the pattern with both the GFES and ECS
advertising high rain chances returning late Tuesday and
lasting into next weekend.

Tuesday may not quite be the transition day but changes appear to be
underway that night. The strong and hot ridge that will plague the
area the next few days is quickly sliding east. The 597/598dm ridge
will be moving out of the Lower MS Valley and into the southern
Plains Tuesday morning becoming centered over the TX and OK
panhandles Wednesday afternoon/evening. The ridge will continue to
slowly slide west while another easterly wave will move across the
northern Gulf. Biggest question is how fast this wave moves to the
west and how fast convection moves back into the area. Like the last
2 weeks it has been a race to see if we warm up fast enough before
convection pushes in. 2 weeks ago the convection was faster and we
stayed slightly cooler than what models were suggesting, last week
the convection was a little slower and arrived mid to late
afternoon. This allowed the area to warm up but convection did keep
the area from fully reaching its potential. This time it appears
like it will be a little later to arrive but given the track record
of convection getting here faster than expected how hot we get
Tuesday is a question. The ridge is already west of the area and we
will be under weak northerly to northeasterly flow while the deeper
tropical moisture looks like it will move in during the area. With
that there is a little support that suggests convection could fire
east of I-55 during the afternoon. That along with cirrus overhead
could help keep the area from torching out. Still looks fairly warm
and some heat headlines may still be needed.

The rest of the week and into the weekend convection is expected
once again. For the 3rd week in a row an easterly wave will slide in
the northern Gulf and slowly work west through the rest of the week.
This will bring deep tropical moisture back into the region. Also
our ridge will continue to the west and this will lead to scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms with convection likely
developing rather early or more so just transitioning from marine
overnight and early morning to inland areas during the day and
evening. The setup late in the week and possibly into next week may
be a little more like what we saw at the beginning of July where we
are actually stuck between 2 ridges. One west of the area centered
closer towards the 4 corners and AZ/NM/Mexico border and another
ridge across the eastern Gulf and and stretching into the western
Atlantic. This would leave a weakness over the region. Combine that
with the deep moisture in place and convection will be likely
each day. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Cannot rule out a rogue
shower or storm, however, this will be the exception rather than
the rule. MCB may experience some VIS reductions to MVFR late
tonight, but should only be brief with improvements shortly after
sunrise. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Conditions will become much more benign the next few days
as high pressure dominates the region. Convection will be fairly
limited and winds will be weak. High pressure slides west of the
area Monday and this will lead to light northerly winds monday and
into Tuesday. Late Tuesday and through next week winds will
slowly increase as an easterly wave approaches the area. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  94  75  96  77 /  20   0  10  10
ASD  94  74  97  76 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  94  78  97  81 /  20   0  10  10
GPT  92  77  97  78 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  94  75  98  77 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB